UC Santa Cruz - Retention & Graduation

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Retention/Graduation Questions and Answers

How do subpopulations of UCSC's students (based on demographic characteristics and academic preparation) fare relative to the average rates?

There are at least two ways to evaluate the graduation rates of subpopulations of students. One is to compare the actual graduation rate of a subpopulation of students to either the overall actual rate or to the actual rate of another subpopulation. Another is to compare the actual average graduation rate for a given subpopulation to the predicted rate for those same students. For example, one might compare women’s graduation rates either to men’s or to the campus average, or one might compare women’s actual graduation rate to the rate you would predict those particular women to have.

Using data from the HERI study described in the previous question, predicted graduation rates were calculated for UCSC students based on gender, ethnicity, and SAT I and high school GPA score ranges. Comparisons of those rates to the actual rates are presented in the table below.

Predicted vs. Actual UCSC Graduation Rates Combined 1994-98 Fall Freshmen Cohorts

	N	Predicted	Actual
Overall	9,908	64.0%	65.8%

Gender
Women	6,037	64.9%	67.4%
Men	3,871	62.5%	63.2%

Ethnicity
African-American	247	51.0%	55.9%
Asian	1,493	65.7%	63.8%
Chicano/a	961	47.5%	59.5%
Other Latino/a	432	58.2%	65.5%
Native American	110	49.2%	60.0%
White	5,455	67.7%	67.5%
Other	294	62.9%	67.4%
Unknown	916	67.1%	68.1%

SAT I Combined
high quintile (1250-high)	1,871	74.2%	66.5%
4th quintile (1160-1240)	1,694	68.9%	66.5%
3rd quintile (1080-1150)	1,819	65.7%	68.4%
2nd quintile (970-1070)	2,066	61.7%	65.0%
low quintile (low-960)	1,906	51.9%	60.0%

High School GPA
high quintile (3.81-high)	1,864	79.1%	72.8%
4th quintile (3.56-3.80)	1,841	70.7%	66.4%
3rd quintile (3.37-3.55)	1,923	63.4%	63.4%
2nd quintile (3.20-3.36)	2,037	57.6%	64.6%
low quintile (low-3.19)	1,954	50.4%	58.3%

Note: Predicted graduation rates for students with unknown ethnicity were based on a 3-predictor model (HS GPA, SAT, gender) rather that the full 4-predictor model.

Cells highlighted in blue indicate subpopulations of students who graduated at significantly higher than predicted rates, while those highlighted in yellow indicate groups who graduated at below expected rates. Women, underrepresented ethnic minorities, and students from UCSC’s bottom two quintiles of SAT I scores and high school GPA, graduated at rates above predicted rates based on national trends. Asian students, and students in the highest SAT and high school GPA quintiles graduated from UCSC at below expected rates.

These data suggest that the ethnic resource centers and academic support services for underrepresented students at UCSC have been effective in "socially integrating," and thus enhancing, the retention and graduation rates for students here. Similarly, the support services, in student affairs and the academic departments, both formal and informal have likely had a positive effect in retaining students who come to UCSC somewhat less well prepared than some of their peers.

On-the-other-hand these data raise questions about why Asian students and students with the highest levels of academic preparation leave at greater rates than we might expect. These are questions that the VPDUE’s office and CEP and other senate questions will be pursuing in the months to come.

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